⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Pros And Cons: The Economics Of Autonomous Vehicles

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Pros And Cons: The Economics Of Autonomous Vehicles



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The Pros and Cons of Autonomous Vehicles

Given its narrow focus on the highly cyclical auto industry, CARZ is likely to have less appeal within a buy-and-hold investment strategy. But it may be useful for providing tactical exposure to the auto industry over the short term. The fund follows a value-centric strategy, focusing on stocks that look relatively cheap compared to the rest of the sector. The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or adopt any investment strategy.

While we believe the information provided herein is reliable, we do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. The views and strategies described in our content may not be suitable for all investors. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, all comments, opinions, and analyses contained within our content are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment, or strategy. Volt Equity. ETF Database. First Trust. Top ETFs. Dividend Stocks.

Growth Stocks. Your Money. Personal Finance. Your Practice. Popular Courses. Part Of. Index-Based ETFs. Factor-Based ETFs. Tech Stock ETFs. Energy Stock ETFs. Therefore the key objective of the paper isto clearly outline the EV value chain, the perceived risks along the value chain and highlight somefinancial tools and business solutions that could be modified specifically for de-risking and thereforefacilitate the financing of EV growth in India.

In which case, growth of the EVvalue chain must be fuelled by organic consumer demand, and not pushed by unsustainableGovernment subsidies for consumers, to drive EV purchases. This would defeat the purpose ofreducing strains on Indias Balance of Payments. Range anxiety inhibits the consumers decision making process and this is well documented by numerous reports. Smart grids will not only accommodate EV charging point applications, but will also reduce energy wastage by the grid in general. Direct GoI investments and public private partnership PPP models can be explored accordingly to hive off the financial investment component to the private sector.

High economic growth rates and the impacts of globalization have concentrated prosperity in urban centers resulting in sprawl and auto-mobilization. Within 15 years the population residing in urban areas is expected to double to over million [1] due to distressed rural to urban migration and other factors. This will place additional pressures on urban infrastructure, which is already overburdened. Projections indicate that by India will have the largest concentration of megacities in the world with a population exceeding 10 million.

Out of a total of 88 cities, with a population of more than half a million in , only 28 have any formal public transportation system. In most cases, the existing public transport systems are ageing and stretched beyond capacity, as the demand for public transport services outstrips supply, both qualitatively and quantitatively. As disposable income increases, a result of economic growth, those entering the middle-class are able to afford and prefer personal vehicles, as it is a symbol of upward social mobility, and also provides greater comfort, flexibility and convenience. In the absence of proper planning measures, the dynamics between increasing numbers of vehicles as well as a growing population wanting to use private vehicles for transport are likely to pressurize transport infrastructure, leading to inefficiencies as a result of infrastructural bottlenecks such as traffic congestion, gridlocks and slower train speeds.

This would result in higher traffic management costs and greater energy consumption, therefore significantly increasing carbon emissions from transportation. If current ICE uptake trends continue, developing countries like India are faced with unsustainablefutures that are likely to have negative triple bottom line impacts. Considering the stage ofeconomic development in India, the country has a unique opportunity to develop sustainably bymanaging emissions growth, enhancing energy security and by supporting the creation of a worldclass clean-technology industry. The time is ripe to explore a range of potentially promisingsolutions to redirect the economy towards a path which is sustainable and secure.

Increasingurbanization, infrastructural development and concentration of economic activities in certain loadcenters have resulted in higher mobility fuelled by a rapid increase in number of vehicles anddistances travelled. The growing demand for energy is being addressed largely though oil imports,where India is currently the 5th largest oil importer in the world. India simply does not possessadequate oil reserves to meet current and future demand. High oil pricesresult in negative feedback loops that weaken stock prices and tighten fiscal conditions, therebydepressing economic growth in the long term.

The growth of the Indian economy is impacted by the price of oil imports, which tends to beextremely volatile and sensitive to economic and political shifts. Thiswould further exacerbate the budget deficit, dampening economic growth. The transport sector is a key consumer of oil and oil products. Until recently Governments and businesses have ignored the phenomenon of peak oil.

Peak oil refers to the point at which the maximum rate of global oil extraction is reached. However, there has been growing acceptance of peak oil in the public domain, where both Governments and businesses have been exploring alternative sources of energy supply, primarily renewable sources like solar, wind, hydro, geo-thermal and nuclear energy. Technologies that have the potential to phase-out oil dependent forms of transportation should be actively pursued to gauge their feasibility. According to the Fourth AssessmentReport of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warming of the planetis unequivocal and it is very likely that the rise in global average temperatures is due to theobserved increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas GhG concentrations [6].

The World Meteorological Organization WMO reported that was the hottest year onrecords since , tied with , and the difference was less than a margin of uncertainty [7]. This is evidence of a warming trend that continues to be strengthened Exhibit 3. EVs, in particular, can have a significant impact towardscutting down demand for oil imports and reducing carbon emissions arising from roadtransportation, only if electricity is derived from hydro and renewable [9]. Electric Vehicles in India: Challenges and Opportunities 5 The transport sector is the fourth largest contributor of greenhouse gases in India with a share of 7. India has witnessed a fold increase in vehicle numbers between and Even if engine efficiencies improve, the sheer growth in the number of vehicles on the road would lead to an absolute increase in GhG emissions from road transport.

Exhibit 5: Expected growth in CO2 emissions in India from different transportmodes [13] Water Frieght rail Freight trucks Megatonnes C O2 Air Pass rail Buses 3-wheelers 2-wheelers Pass cars 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 5 15 25 5 5 0 0 3 4 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20Source: Mobility at What Cost? The high growth rates of the Indian economy have resulted in an unprecedented rise in disposableincomes and this has contributed towards a burgeoning automotive industry. Yet, Indias carper capita ratio i. The share of public transporthas been declining slowly as a result of the growth in private vehicle ownership, fuelled byexpanding urbanization and affluence.

Electric Vehicles in India: Challenges and Opportunities 7 The study estimated that total intra-city passenger transport activities passenger kilometers across 87 cities, including state capitals and cities with populations greater than 0. It is estimated that the increase in passenger activities would continue to grow at an even higher rate of about 7. The dynamic interactions between personal vehicle penetration, rising incomes, increasing affordability of cars and expanding export opportunities is expected to position the Indian automobile industry for growth.

The automotive market remains cost-conscious in India. The primary decision point for car buyers in India continues to be the upfront purchase price of vehicles, whereas fuel efficiency has historically been a secondary concern, though the implied effect is evident due to a preference for small and cheap cars. This statistic challenges the notion that the Indian consumer will remain predominantly price conscious in the long term. However, as fuel costs rise, we can expect increasing consumer importance and emphasis on fuel efficiency in purchase decisions.

This has resulted in the increaseduse of private vehicles across most urban centres accompanied by declining share of publictransport systems. In addition, with expanding cities, the share of pedestrians, cyclists and non-motorized transport users has also fallen, as seen in Exhibit 7 8 and 9. A significantamount of road based passenger transport activities in the country are concentrated in cities.

Electric Vehicles in India: Challenges and Opportunities 9 The current trends in urban transport, which are primarily a result of the inability of Indian cities to meet the increasing transport demand in a planned manner, have resulted in local problems related to congestion, deterioration of air quality, increase in number of road fatalities and accidents and loss in economic productivity. This leads to higher fuel consumption due to low speeds and vehicle idling [21]. Considering an oil constrained future and the high emission levels associated with the transport sector, it is therefore important to reduce the use of petroleum dependent private vehicles in the country.

In the s and early s, private vehicles were less in number and road transport served as a mode complimentary to public transportation. The modal split has shifted in favor of road transport, away from energy efficient modes like railways and buses that have a lower carbon footprint. This is a likely trend not only in most megacities but also Tier II and Tier III cities that are characterized by poor transport services and infrastructure. Only 20 cities in the country have an organized public bus service [23], which in most cases are inadequate leading to an increased dependence on personal modes of transport. The growth in personal vehicle ownership will continue to accelerate with increasing incomes,greater availability, as well as access to credit and decreasing vehicle cost, case in point being theTata Nano which has enjoyed an increase in sales, 5.

Exhibit 10 indicates a growing reliance on personal modes of transport cars and two-wheelers and intermediate modes of transport taxis and auto-rickshaws driven by the doubling of per-capita incomes from to Over the same period the number of public buses hasremained relatively constant considering a rise in population of approximately million. Thisdata suggests a growing trend towards a reliance on personal modes of transport due to theburgeoning middle class, a lack of urban planning and minimal investments by the Governmenttowards improving public transportation. Bus services in particular have deteriorated because public transport service providers are unableto expand services, both in terms of number of buses and number of routes plying.

Overcrowding of the public transportation system is particularly evident in large cities, wherebuses and trains carry more than twice their optimal capacity. As a result we have seen a massiveshift towards personalized transport, particularly two-wheelers, and the growing use ofintermediate modes such as taxis and three-wheeler auto-rickshaws [25]. At this juncture, it should be noted that the Government has drawn plans to improve local railnetworks in urban cities by improving access and expanding existing capacity.

Other urbantransport planning initiatives include bus-rapid-transport-systems BRTS , pedestrian zones,skywalks and cycling paths. Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai and Hyderabad are in differentphases of planning or implementing light-duty metro rail services to complement existing modesof public transport. It is envisaged that these plans will have some impact on increasing the shareof public transport. However given Indias low motorization index and the lack of adequateinvestments in public transport, the country is further expected to exhibit growth in light dutypersonal vehicles.

India will be faced with the complex problem of convincing people not to use their vehiclesbecause this would increase the demand for oil imports - adding to the budget deficit whilecontributing to the countrys growing carbon footprint. Therefore, the only way to really shiftpopulation mindsets is by making public transportation networks extensive, accessible and safer. In the interim, alternative modes of sustainable personal transportation must be explored totackle the immediate socio-environmental impacts of the Internal Combustion Engine.

Electric Vehicles in India: Challenges and Opportunities 11 Sustainable Personal Transportation Sustainable Personal Transportation Sustainable transport systems aim to reduce emissions, fossil fuel consumption and minimize the land area requirements, while providing easy access to people to enable efficient mobility [25]. Vehicles that run on alternative sources of energy such as solar, bio-fuels, fuel cells and batteries have been developed, demonstrated and in some cases they have entered markets and are already on the roads.

The key differentiator between EVs and conventional ICE vehicles is that the electricity that they consume can be derived from different sources or a combination of energy sources, particularly renewables such as solar and wind energy. Electric vehicles are only as green as the energy sources used to charge them. Electricity can be transmitted to EVs wirelessly through induction or directly using an electrical cable. EVs utilize on-board batteries to store electricity. Unlike ICEs, EVs are capable of regenerative braking whereby they are able to recover the energy that is lost during braking as electricity that is then stored back into the on-board battery. They do not have any tail-pipe or evaporative emissions and are virtually maintenance free. There are almost 40 new production ready electric vehicles and hybrid vehicleslaunching by Efficiency improvements inconversion technology now permit the extraction of bio-fuels from a wide variety of sources,particularly, wood, crops and waste materials.

Bioethanol and biodiesel are the two mostcommonly available types of biofuels. Biofuels have been around since the invention of theautomobile but were largely displaced by the discovery of huge deposits of oil that kept petroland diesel prices cheap for decades. Bio-fuels are a renewable resource as more plants can be grown for conversion into fuel, with theadded advantage that the plants sequester carbon as they grow. Over the last decade there hasbeen much debate about the relative pros and cons of focusing on biofuels as a viable solutionbased on a range of economic, social, environmental and technical issues. The large scaleproduction of bio-fuel for transportation would require large land areas; as a result its potential toreplace fossil fuels is limited.

However, innovative approaches like using seaweed to producebiofuels might address the food vs. Existing petrol or diesel vehicles can be easilymodified to run on CNG at an average cost of INR 20, [31] for petrol vehicles and about INR50, for diesel vehicles. CNG is one of the more promising alternative fuels due to itsabundance and zero emissions. The strongest driver of CNG development has been its favorableeconomics i. CNG as a transport fuel has been actively promoted by the Government of India throughmandates and targets. Rising petrol and diesel prices have stimulated demand for CNG vehicles and many auto majors like Maruti-Suzuki, Tata Motors, Chevrolet, Toyota, Hyundai, among others, have introduced factory fitted CNG vehicles of their popular models in the Indian market.

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